KEY. Trump. A week ago, Democrats led Republicans. Nov. Races called correctly. The 2023 elections were a victory for liberal governance. In October 2014, the generic ballot stood here: Fox: D 45%, R 43% (D+2) CNN: D 49%, R 43% (D+6) (NPR’s last poll of registered voters. The results indicate. 48%. The generic congressional vote rating indicates which political party voters support in a congressional election. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. The Senate Is Losing One Of Its Few Remaining Moderate Republicans Sep 13, 2023; 2024 Election. 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100% Trump DeSantis Haley Ramaswamy Nov. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Republicans took the lead in the generic congressional ballot on July 6, and by Labor Day weekend they had a clear 5-point lead. 2024 Republican Debates. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible. Six pollsters 1 have released generic ballot polls both before and after the Dobbs decision. Krishna Rao, president of the Rice Exporters Association,. The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often. This isn’t a popularity contest™. 3 percentage points (43. Rasmussen. 2010: R+3. SEIU is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. -- A judge has struck down an effort to enshrine reproductive rights, including abortion, in Nevada’s constitution, as abortion rights. Democrats won. 8 Nov. 42%. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Colorado officials have urged a final decision by Jan. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. And 2022, as a midterm year, has more in common with 2018 than 2020. John Anthony Castro, a longshot Republican 2024 presidential candidate, filed a complaint in a New Hampshire court arguing that Trump should be banned from the state's primary ballot while arguing. Poll type. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Trump and three generic third-party candidates. 182. B/C. Women Won The Right To Vote 100 Years Ago. 5. SEIU is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. ”. 8. As a result of Census apportionment, some states have a different number of electoral votes in 2024. Indicates a polling average for this poll type. Zoom in: Republicans and Democrats are tied on the congressional generic ballot at 44%, according to RealClearPolitics' polling average, with polls showing both parties are viewed unfavorably by most voters. In late October, 538 ’s generic ballot average began moving in favor of Republicans. Democrats managed to remain ahead of Republicans until November, when the GOP took over the lead in 538’s average of generic congressional ballot polls. Most recent cycle. A week ago, Republicans led Democrats by 2. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Andy Beshear won reelection in Kentucky. 3. 48. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Josh Christenson. 47%. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 2-point advantage in the national generic ballot, according to the FiveThirtyEight average. Biden vs. Filed under 2020 Election. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. 2 percent in an average of all. Indicates a polling average for this poll type. Friday’s poll showed the generic Republican candidate is up seven points, with 48 percent of the likely U. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 9 . That. Nov. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. The average from FiveThirtyEight looks at polls from Morning. , polls that ask people whether they intend to vote for a Democrat or for a Republican for Congress. If one candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, they will win the election outright. There is no shortage of people running for president in 2024. We’ve collected 162 generic ballot polls so far. Democracy Corps is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. Democrats now enjoy a small but notable lead over Republicans in the generic congressional ballot with less than three months before crucial midterm elections, according to. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. In October 2014, the generic ballot stood here: Fox: D 45%, R 43% (D+2) CNN: D 49%, R 43% (D+6) (NPR’s last poll of registered voters. Andy Beshear won reelection in Kentucky. . Across the six. Download. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Download the data. The latest survey marks a decline over the past month from Democrats’ high point (49%), and a boost for the GOP from its 44% low. Download the data. A bleak Senate outlook for Democrats just got bleaker. The generic ballot average has been relatively stable in 2020, but recent history suggests it could still move and make for a competitive battle for control of the House as well as the White House. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 2 percent and generic Republicans with an average of 44 percent. 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination: Trafalgar Group (R) Trump 50, DeSantis 13, Haley 15, Ramaswamy 4, Christie 5, Scott 4, Burgum 3, Hutchinson 0: Trump +35: 2024 Republican Presidential. Trump. The generic ballot — which asks respondents whether they’ll vote for the Republican or the Democrat in their congressional district — informs the FiveThirtyEight Senate models in a fashion. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Keep it simple, please — give me the best forecast you can based on what local and national polls say. Affiliated with AAPOR/Roper. All 2014 Generic Congressional Vote Polling Data. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. S. The reality of the generic ballot is that Democrats generally need to be ahead by a few points to have a status-quo election. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 8, 2016 44. Polls analyzed. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 7-10. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 2020. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination: Trafalgar Group (R) Trump 50, DeSantis 13, Haley 15, Ramaswamy 4, Christie 5, Scott 4, Burgum 3, Hutchinson 0: Trump +35: 2024 Republican Presidential. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Download. Download the data. Today, 538 is also happy to release our live-updating average of polls of the national generic congressional ballot, which ask Americans which party they intend to support for Congress in 2024. Download the data. 5, 2024, when they must finalize their primary ballot. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, 2 Republicans currently lead by 2. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. degree. 2024 Elections Truth-o-Meter True Mostly True Half True. 6 percent to 43. 4 points. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Read More The 2023. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. 49. 45. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 48. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. 21, 2023 leader Nov. Independent voters include respondents who. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. RCP Poll Average. 6 points. 42%. 47%. The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024. A: We collect polls for presidential, Senate, House and gubernatorial general elections in addition to presidential approval polls, vice presidential approval polls and congressional generic. 3 . Updated 11/22/2023 08:59 AM EST. The faux Democratic generic ballot lead in June, July, and August of 2014 broke hard toward Republicans the minute September hit and voters began paying attention again. 4% Democrat. On Wednesday morning, another generic. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public. New York: Trump vs. Climate Power is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. Democrats (D) +6. 8 House popular vote, proving that Tuesday’s national environment was indeed only Republican- leaning. ESTIMATE. 48. Download the data. 538 house model shows Reps predicted to be up 2. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 47%. 11/18 - 11/19. That’s an 18 percentage. 2-point edge on the generic ballot. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. That’s down from a high of 71-in-100, which persisted from Sept. The generic congressional vote question does not. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Kuster UNH Kuster 53, Burns 45 Kuster +8 2022 Generic Congressional Vote. 1 points. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Evergreen Principles (super PAC) Evergreen Principles (super PAC) is a partisan sponsor for the Republican Party. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party. 22 to Nov. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. The average methodology is summarized below the table. 48. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. 43. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. 5 percent to 42. Jan 23 New Hampshire presidential primary election Latest news and analysis Latest news Harris tells CNN that she and Biden will ‘have to earn our reelect’. Senate, U. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. It may also be the case, though, that Omar just didn’t take her primary challenge too seriously. Download the data. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE. A recent CBS News/YouGov survey has Democrats running 2 percentage points behind Republicans in the generic congressional ballot — a measure closely tied to a party’s performance in the midterms. Democrats will likely lose West Virginia's Senate seat in 2024. 47%. voters in 2024, much of their. Download the data. Download. As recently as the 1970s, a voter’s preferences were only loosely moored to partisanship. Download the data. In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead Republicans by 2. Download the data. 3. Trump. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. For Ballotpedia's presidential approval, congressional approval, direction of the country, and generic congressional ballot polling results, we take an average of the most recent polls (from the last 30 days, with some exceptions for major news events) on one or more of these topics conducted by the. Aug. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. President: Republican primary, New Hampshire, 2024. Download the data. 59. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Races called correctly. Democrats lead Republicans in the generic congressional ballot by 4 points with Election Day less than six weeks away, according to a new poll. Latest 2024 Polls; Republican Nomination; GOP Betting Odds; Democratic Nomination; Dem. Aug. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Ashcroft’s original description of the proposed abortion amendments, which could go on the ballot in 2024 if supporters gather enough voter signatures, would have asked voters whether they want. It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. 2. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Download. 2. Republicans (R) July October 2018 April July October 36 38 40. Climate Power is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. When Kansas voters earlier this month rejected a ballot initiative that would have made it easier for the state legislature to restrict or ban abortion, it was only the. 48. 6 percent). While it’s definitely too early to hang your hat on any 2024 general-election polls, a Selzer & Co. 6. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Download. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major. 5. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Download the data. 9 points on the actual house popular vote in Nov, a 4. With one week to go until election day, Split Ticket is excited to release its second to last House Temperature Check. WPA Intelligence. In some ways, splits on all these indicators probably shouldn’t be a surprise. 19, 2020. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. 6 hours ago · A court ruled last week that previous spending violated constitutional limits on deficits, forcing Scholz’s government to put off a final vote on next year’s spending plan. Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research. 2 point swing. Polls find Republicans down ballot will perform better if Florida Gov. Republicans took the lead in the generic congressional ballot on July 6, and by Labor Day weekend they had a clear 5-point lead. House, where 218 seats are needed for a majority (when there are no vacancies). Download. Trump. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Therefore, we also make our data available for download so you can play with. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 2020 Generic Congressional Vote. Biden EPIC-MRA. 508 LV. 5Download the data. 9. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. Download the data. 12-16. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. 5 percentage points, but actually won the national vote by only 1. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Sort by date. Download the data. Aug. On the day of the Dobbs decision, Republicans led polls of the generic congressional ballot, or polls that ask Americans which party they plan to support for Congress, by 2. Download. 1 30 40 50 60% Kelly 48. 5 percent to 40. With election day approaching, two gubernatorial elections remain to be held before the 2024 general election. The national surveys looking at the generic congressional ballot had Republicans ahead by about 1. 1 Nov. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major. This page displays the current 270toWin Polling Average for each state. This page displays the current 270toWin Polling Average for each state. 2. 11-13. The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. e. Download the data. 2014 Generic Congressional Vote. SIOUX CITY, Iowa -- The wife of a northwestern Iowa county supervisor was convicted Tuesday of a scheme to stuff the ballot box in her husband’s unsuccessful race for. Download the data. The result was a. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Download. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast. Download the data. 1380 RV. A week ago, Republicans led Democrats by 1. Generic ballot. No bachelor’s. The first, from our colleagues at ABC News and The Washington Post, showed Republicans 1 point ahead on the generic ballot among registered voters but 2 points ahead among likely voters, making. By Holly Fuong, Aaron Bycoffe, Humera Lodhi and Nathaniel Rakich. Andy Beshear won reelection in Kentucky. Since May 2022, Republicans have lost a slight edge on the generic ballot. Today, 538 is also happy to release our live-updating average of polls of the national generic congressional ballot, which ask Americans which party they intend to support for Congress in 2024. Our 2020 forecasts — presidential, Senate, House — are all now officially frozen, meaning we won’t be ingesting any new polls or updating the odds in any race. The prediction is that the Republicans will win 47% of the representatives in the Electoral College (253), and the Democrats. On average, Democrats trailed by. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Biden. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Specifically, we looked at what would happen if you made a forecast based solely on the partisan lean of a state or district, plus generic-ballot results. Download. 78%. The current 2024 presidential election ratings from Louis Jacobson for U. ABC’s Jonathan Karl and 538 blogger Nate Silver -- noted that the recent polls about Obama’s approval rating and the generic ballot. Generic ballot polling average. Biden. Download the data. A week ago. S. The method of calculating the generic ballot that we use on our generic ballot interactive, which currently shows Democrats ahead by 10. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. YouGov. 1,500 LV. 7-10. S. Candidate is an incumbent. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. fit different models to predict the election outcome from generic ballot polls taken 300 days before the election, 240 days before the election, 180 days before the. Democrats Republicans; Likely: Leans: Toss up: Likely: Leans: Toss up: Date State Prev ious Status New Status Dems Toss Ups GOP Pick-Up Range Avg Gain Average Gain; 11/6: NY19 NY19: Leans GOPMarch 28-April 5. Biden Siena Biden 46, Trump 36 Biden +10 New York: Trump vs. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. 22 to Nov. The two most recent high quality polls have Rs at anywhere between 38 and 47 % (polls done by YouGov and Quinnipiac). West Siena Biden 37, Trump 28, Kennedy 18, West 5 Biden +9 Michigan: Trump vs. The last key point is that the generic ballot can be somewhat misleading when it comes to the eventual outcomes — because history shows Democrats need to be leading on that measure to keep their. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. President: general election, Virginia, 2024. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. +25. 2% Republican 44.